2018 US Open Preview

 

Three Storylines, and a Look at the Draw

 

August 25, 2018

 

       Three stories stick out at this time regarding the ATP Tour, and all will add new chapters in New York over the next two weeks. #1) The Djokovic Resurgence....#2) The Kyrgios Conundrum....#3) The Rising, Expanding Youth Movement

 

       The last four years of Djokovic's career have been a fascinating mental study as he has gone from the top of the mountain, heights rarely ever reached in the sport, down to depths of despair, wondering how it all crashed so quickly and if he'd ever regain his former stature in the sport.

        After losing to Nishikori in the 2014 US Open SFs, Djoker embarked upon an unprecedented tear that culminated with his hoisting of the French Open trophy at Roland Garros 20 months later. He was the champion of all four slams at that time, and had won 5 of the 6 slams during that 20 month stretch. He also pocketed 10 Masters titles during that period, 3 Masters R-ups, and 20 of his career 70 titles. He made 17 straight finals at one point, took the title at the last seven of those, and won 93.5% of his matches over this magnificent 20 month stretch (143-10).

        But then came a myriad of injuries in every form: his elbow, his personal life, his motivation, his confidence, his direction. He was seeking spiritual guidance and direction from a former Futures level journeyman named Pepe Imaz...he dropped Boris Becker from his coaching team, then dropped longtime coach Marian Vajda. Agassi briefly coached him, then Radek Stepanek came aboard for four unproductive months. The low point of this dark two year journey was losing to Taro Daniel at Indian Wells, a challenger level journeyman ranked 109 at the time. Djoker's forehand in that match looked challenger level at best.

        At this point, it had to take tremendous mental fortitude to still believe he could rise to the top of the game, especially as his 31st birthday approached. I for one was not a believer in a potential resurgence, as I lost a bet made during the 2018 French Final that he'd never win another slam. Six weeks later, low and behold, I was paying that bet off! Not only had The Djokster won Wimbledon, but he'd beaten another living legend in an epic semifinal, coming through with big first serves on multiple break points against Nadal late in the 5th set. His game was back, his mental toughness and clutchness was back, his confidence was back. Then one month later he accomplished another ATP first, taking the title at Cincy, over his other huge rival Fed, to complete the Golden Masters Series set - all 9 titles! Federer has never won Monte Carlo or Rome, while Nadal has never won Miami or Paris.

        What's interesting is that going through that dark two year storm and still able to emerge with a championship game and champion's mentality cuts two ways. On the plus side, he has immense confidence knowing that sudden, strong, prolonged  adversity can be overcome. But on the other side, he now has firsthand knowledge how fragile that championship state of mind is, and how easily it can go away. Should be very interesting to see how things go from here...certainly looks like a few more slams are there for the taking.

​

        From a champion and champion's strong mindset and mental fortitude we go to the mercurial, stubborn, sullen talent that is Nick Kyrgios. Watching his match against Wawrinka at Toronto, I was astounded at the number of phenomenal, 'no one else does this' shots he made. The 114mph FH winner that looked like a cannon shot. The unnecessary baseline tweener volley, prolonging a rally Stan thought was over since the ball would have landed 2-3 feet out. HIs talent is otherworldly...but his head and attitude will totally prevent him from reaching his potential, unless he adjusts. 

        Here is some advice for Nick, to possibly reach his untapped potential. Nick, good news...you can have your cake and eat it too! You can play low percentage shots, entertain the crowd, and still be a champion. They say in real estate it's location, location, location...well in tennis, it's timing, timing, timing! In the early rounds against lesser opponents, match in hand, break out the showmanship. Up 40-0 on serve, go ahead, pull out the unnecessary tweener. But you need to channel the inner rebel in you, which is CLEARLY there, and want to prove the many doubters wrong. You got all upset when Marion Bartoli said she didn't think you'd ever win a slam because of your head and attitude, but then the next day you went out at Wimbledon and proved her point, losing in 3 straight sets to Nishikori. Those are the moments to go out and PROVE DOUBTERS WRONG! Not confirm their opinions.

        Here is an optimistic future scenario for Nicky K. He continues as is for the next 4-5 years, making enough money to enjoy life, winning enough matches to remain tour relevant and a dangerous opponent, but no meaningful titles, no reaching his potential. Then, somewhere around 28/29 years old, he has an epiphany: 'Jesus, I've been frittering away my career and my talent for almost a decade now. How good could I be if I trained right, approached the game professionally, played smart tennis during matches, especially on big points. If I got a coach, etc, etc...' It wouldn't be easy with all the 'Next Gen' talent that would be in the prime of their careers at the time, but as talented as this wave of players is, Nicky's talent is unique, rare, special, and probably even greater. We can only hope that sometime in the future he prioritizes winning as much as he now prioritizes looking cool, indifferent, and flashy. We shall see.

​

        Speaking of that wave of young talent, so nice to see it progressing nicely throughout all levels of the tour. At this US Open 6 of the 32 seeds are 22 & under 'Youth Brigaders' (18.8%). They make up 10 of the ATP top 50 (20%), 15 of the top 100 (15%), and 23 of the top 150 (15.3%). So they are all arriving, at all levels, and steadily rising. This time last year it was just two seeds (A Zverev, Khachanov), 10 in the top 100, and 19 of the top 150. Four of them ranked between 100 and 150 qualified into this US Open, including the youngest and most tantalizing of them all, Felix Augur-Aliassime, who destroyed Jurgen Melzer's little bro in the final round, 6-3, 6-0, winning 24 of the 29 points in the final set (including the first 18 of them!).

        He's a special talent, though when you watch him, nothing in particular stands out. He owns a very strong, 130+ mph serve, and his groundstrokes are textbook and fluid. If anything, his game is somewhat reminiscent of Djokovic. Same size, very good mover and defender for his size, and picturesque groundstrokes. He definitely has a more naturally powerful serve than Djoker, while his return of serve is not nearly the equal of the game's greatest returner ever. Paul Annacone expects him to be seeded here a year from now...high praise, and lofty expectations. Top 50 is certainly in the cards, but not sure about being seeded. 

        Back to the group in general, with such a sudden large wave of young talent hitting the tour basically simultaneously, I did some research on 22 & under tennis players. In terms of recent history, the current numbers are a total outlier. From year-end 2010 through year-end 2015 rankings, an average of 3.3 players a year aged 22 & under finished inside the top 50, and just 7.7 a year inside the top 100. So we currently have 3 times as many inside the top 50 and almost twice as many inside the top 100. But going back further, to year-end 2006, we bump into a legendary wave of youngsters bursting onto the scene. 12 players 22 & under finished inside the top 50, including seven inside the top 20 - Nadal, Djoker, Murray, Berdych, and Gasquet among them. Jump further back to Jan 1, 2001, when Fed was just 19, (ranked 29th), and you have 24 players in the top 100 under 23 years old, including 5 of them inside the top 20, led by Safin (2nd), Hewitt (7th), and Ferrero (12th).

        So while this current crop is an exciting group to watch and see develop, they are by no means unprecedented, and actually have a long way to go to match the accomplishments of other sudden influxes of new talent. Either way, they are a massive upgrade over the 2010-2015 dry spell we recently experienced. One final note - if a player finishes the year as the #1 player under the age of 23, chances are he is soon to be or already is quite an accomplished stud. Even during the 2010-2015 dry spell, that #1 guy was an always an eventual top 10 talent and Grand Slam semifinalist - Cilic, Nishikori, Raonic, Dimitrov, Thiem (twice). 

​

The 2018 Men's Draw - Juicy Matchups

​

        I don't want to look too far ahead, so the 3rd round is as far as we will look out. But that still leaves plenty of interesting match-ups to peek at, starting of with the Battle of Canadian Teens in round 1!

​

(1st) Shapovalov vs. Auger-Aliassime - First of all, these two played together during the 2015 US Open junior tourney and won the doubles, beating a pair of future USC teammates Brandon Holt and Riley Smith. The next year, Felix beat Tsitsipas in the singles SFs on his way to hoisting the junior championship trophy, just a couple months after Shapo bagged the Wimby junior title. Felix is just 4-7 lifetime in tour level matches, while Shapo is 39-37. Shapo is the flashy shotmaker with the pretty one-hand BH, while Felix has the solid two-hander and the bigger serve. Athletically, Shapo probably has a slight edge. Experience will likely win the day, and with Shapo playing his 6th slam main draw vs. Felix' first, I'll take the flashy one in 4 sets.

​

(1st) Wawrinka vs. Dimitrov - What are the odds - two slams in a row these former Top 5 talents clash! Stan took Grigor at Wimby in 4 sets, and looks to be even stronger now, with his comeback win over Kyrgios in the 1st round at Toronto a major breakthrough for him. Dimitrov has had quite a marginal season by his standards, just 22-15 on the year with one R-up (Rotterdam) and one SF (Monte Carlo) to date. Like Djoker but for different reasons (purely physical, bad knee), many thought Stan might never reach his former heights again, especially at age 33. After all, less than a month ago he was losing in round 1 to Donald Young at Washington D.C.! But he went 5-2 in the Masters tuneups, losing to Nadal and Federer, so he finally has some results and confidence to build upon. But I'm still guessing the younger player steps up here, Dimi takes it in 5 sets.

​

(2nd) de Minaur vs. Tiafoe - Hopefully this happens, matching up two of the speediest guys on tour, and it's Tiafoe who has the harder road to make it happen, drawing #29 seed Adrian Mannarino in round 1. These players are right next to each other in age (20 to 19), ranking (42 to 43), and speed, but it's the 20 year old Tiafoe who definitely has more power. If the match-up takes place, I'll take the bigger, stronger Tiafoe to win in 4 sets.

​

(2nd) Monfils vs. Nishikori - As usual, Monfils has been sub 100% and didn't play either Masters tuneup. His constant injuries seems to be getting even more frequent as he turns 32 in a week. His finely tuned, freakishly athletic Lamborghini engine is as delicate as ever. Nishikori isn't quite up to his peak level, and has also battled frequent injury, but is certainly more match tough of late, and should take down the flashy Frenchman in 4 sets.

​

(3rd) Kyrgios vs. Federer - They have played three times before, but never at a slam. Every time it was settled by a tiebreaker in the 3rd set, Fed winning twice (Miami 2017, Stuttgart 2018), and Nick winning their first encounter at Madrid in 2015, 14-12 in the breaker. Does Fed still have another slam title in him? A good friend of mine doesn't think so, and put it this way - 'He's lost his pixie dust'. At 37, looking at tennis history, it's pretty rare to recapture that pixie dust. If Nick stays engaged and serves like he can and has many times (unreturnable!), he should win this. Watching Fed/Djoker in the Cincy final, Fed showed signs of aging, like when Djoker hit right at him at net a couple times rather than going for the pass, and got volley errors - Fed's reflexes slipping a bit, Father Time staking his claim. I'll go with Nicky K in 4 sets.

​

(3rd) Nadal vs. Khachanov - Nadal is 4-0 in this matchup and has never lost a set to the big, powerful young Russian, one of the six Next Gen players seeded here. But their most recent encounter, a few weeks ago in the Toronto SFs, was also their closest, 7-6, 6-4. Khachanov is playing the best tennis of his career and is at a career-high ranking of 27. He went 6-2 in Toronto & Cincy, losing to Cilic 6-4 in the 3rd at the latter event. But Nadal is still Nadal, so I'll give him the edge in 5 sets.

​

(3rd) Coric vs. Tsitsipas - Unless yet another Next Gen'er Medvedev can pull off an upset over the rising Greek star in the 2nd, this matchup should happen. Coric was the first of the Next Gen wave to finish the year inside the top 100 when he ended 2014 at #95 as an 18 yr old. Tsitsipas beat four straight Top 10 players, including Djokovic, on his way to a R-up finish in Toronto a couple weeks ago, and has seen his ranking jump over 90% since last year's US Open when he was #161 in the world. He currently resides at #15, while Coric is also at a career-best ranking, #20. Coric upset A Zverev here a year ago, and I will take him to pull off another upset if this matchup happens, in 5 sets.

​

Other US Open News and Notes

 - Does Jack Sock pull out his nosedive here in NY? He hasn't won a match since Rome, is 5-15 on the year, and has failed to win back-to-back matches all year. He plays 27 yr old Argentine journeyman Guido Andreozzi, who has never cracked the Top 100.

 - Milos Raonic is playing much better than his #25 ranking and has a good chance to make the QFs here, having to get through either Dimi or Waw in the 3rd, then likely Isner in the 4th. 

 - Kyle Edmund is another youngster (23 yrs old) at a career-high ranking (#16) and has a great chance to meet Nadal (or Khachanov) in the 4th rd.

 - Dominic Thiem has struggled mightily since making the French Open final a few months ago. He is just 3-5 since then, lost 1st rd at Toronto to Tsitsipas, and didn't play Cincy. He has made the 4th rd here three times before, including last year when he failed to close out Del Potro after crushing him 6-1, 6-2 in the first two sets. He'll likely get Stevie Johnson in the 2nd rd here, who has caught fire somewhat at this week's Winston-Salem tuneup event, beating Edmund and Carreno Busta in the QFs and SFs respectively. 

 - 22 yr old Next Gen miny-mite Yoshihito Nishioka, a 5'7", flashy shot-maker from Japan, plays Federer in the 1st round. He blew out his ACL at Miami last year, and is still struggling to regain the form that got him to #58 in the world as a 21 yr old. He is a blast to watch and very creative with his shots, playing somewhat like Chilean legend Marcelo Rios. 

 - Finally, Alexander Zverev is slated to meet Marin Cilic in a potentially juicy QF matchup. AZ holds a 5-1 edge over the Croatian in the career head-to-head, having won 5 straight matchups since losing to him at Washington DC in 2015. But in two slams this year, the Aussie and Wimbledon, AZ has lost 5th sets 6-0 to underdog opponents - Hyeon Chung and Ernests Gulbis respectively. The recent addition of Lendl to his coaching team is certainly a positive, though. Cilic is 15-4 since the start of the French Open, with 3 of those losses to Top 10 players, and of course, took the title here in 2014. This should be a great QF if it happens.

 

2017 Wimbledon Preview

 

What a Difference a Year Makes!

 

June 28, 2017

 

       Last year at this time, the subtitle of my preview read 'Dominant #1, Clear #2...Wide Open After That'. But in 2017...the #1 Murray is anything but dominant, and the #2 Nadal is just 5-4 at Wimbledon since making his 5th final here in 2011. Meanwhile, a resurgent Fed is dominating, 24-2 on the year, and the odd-makers favorite to take his 8th crown. 

 

       The Federer and Nadal Revivals have been the stories of the year. At age 35, Roger has taken 4 titles in 2017, just adding the Wimbledon tuneup in Halle to his Aussie win and two hardcourt Masters titles. It was his 9th Halle title, as next year he could go for a far lesser 'Decima' there than the one Rafa just completed at the French. Nadal absolutely steamrolled the field at Roland Garros on his way to #10, winning 9 of his 19 sets either 6-1 or 6-0 in the process, his most dominant performance since winning 12 of 21 sets at 1 or love in 2008 (Final over Fed: 6-1, 6-3, 6-0).

      But the grass has not been kind lately for the ATP #2, winning just 5 matches at Wimbledon since his R-up performance to Djoker in 2011. He chose not to play any tuneup events this year, choosing instead to rest after a demanding clay season that saw him play 25 matches on the dirt in less than 60 days. Two of those matches were wins in Masters finals, tying him with Djokovic for the most Masters crowns at 30. With his serve improved, confidence high, and forehand bludgeoning opponents once again, this should be his best Wimby since 2011...though a stern test vs. a rising Khachanov likely awaits in the 3rd.

       Federer hasn't won Wimbledon since 2012, but has remained elite here nonetheless, losing the 2014 and '15 finals to Djokovic and then letting a two sets to one lead over Raonic slip away last year in the SFs. The Swiss sensation is the oddsmakers favorite here, in his 19th Wimbledon, where he boasts a record of 84-11 since first playing in 1999. Just a few weeks shy of his 18th birthday then, he lost immediately to Jiri Novak, and then to Yevgeny Kafelnikov the next year in round 1 before finally recording his first win here in 2001 over the diminutive Belgian Christophe Rochus. He is +200 to take his 8th title this year, a significant favorite over Murray at +250. 

       Speaking of Scotland's finest, Andy Murray's dominant Fall 2016 run (24 match win streak to close the year) did not carry over into 2017 at all, as he is just 21-9 on the year with his only title coming over Verdasco at Dubai in early March. He has failed to reach a final since then, including a loss in his first match at Queen's Club to 90th ranked Jordan Thompson in straight sets, when he was going for his 6th title there. Losing a 2 sets to 1 lead over Wawrinka in the French SFs stings, too. Does the English crowd and Wimby atmosphere revive his season? Be interesting to see...

        Speaking of reviving seasons, that is exactly what Novak Djokovic is looking to do at the All England Club, which a year ago was the site of the beginning of his sudden downturn. He lost to Sam Querrey here in the 3rd round, commencing a funk that he has still not fully shaken, though he did win the Eastbourne tuneup over Monfils just days before Wimby begins. One caveat though - he also won an Aussie tuneup over Murray before bowing out in round 2 there to Denis Istomin. Still looking for that spark to reignite his game, Djokovic has just recently added Mario Ancic to his coaching team. Ancic, a former semifinalist here in 2004, has gone into banking since retiring from tennis in 2010. An odd, 'out of left field' choice...be interesting to see how this works out.  

​

Other Notable Contenders (seed in parentheses)

​

Stan Wawrinka (5) - Is 18-12 career here, vs. 38-12 at the French Open. Closest he came to the SFs was a loss to Gasquet in the 2015 QFs, 11-9 in the 5th. Also made QFs in 2014, losing in 4 sets to Fed.

​

Alexander Zverev (10) - Still looking for his first GS R16 appearance. Played two Wimby tuneups, making the SFs at s'Hertogenbosch (l. to Muller) and finals of Halle (l. to Fed). 1st Rd loss at French to Verdasco was a major disappointment after winning Rome 2 weeks earlier.

​

Milos Raonic (6) - Has a SF loss here (2014 to Fed) and Runner-up as well (2016 to Murray). But he lost his only tuneup match on grass to Kokkinakis, 7-6, 7-6, and is just 22-8 on the year with 0 titles.

​

Marin Cilic (7) - Has made the QFs here 3 years running, including a heartbreaking loss to Fed last year when he was up 2 sets to none and had 3 match points in the 4th set. Made the SFs at s'Hertogenbosch (l. to Karlovic) and finals at Queen's Club (l. to F Lopez).

​

Dominic Thiem (8) - Unlike the French, where Thiem has lost in the SFs the last two years to all-time greats (Djoker in 2016, Rafa last month), the Austrian has not found much success on the grass. His career Wimby record is 2-3, having never made the 3rd Rd. He lost in the 2nd Rd of the Halle tuneup to Robin Haase. On the bright side, if he finally makes the 3rd Rd this year, he's slated to meet likely the weakest seed in the tourney - Paolo Lorenzi. 

​

INTERESTING 1ST ROUNDERS

​

Shapovalov / Janowicz - The freakish size/athleticism combination head case Janowicz, a semifinalist here in 2013, vs. the 18 yr old lefty Canadian prodigy, who's shown he can hang a bit with the big boys, losing 7-5 in 3rd to Berdych at Queen's Club. Shapovalov won the juniors here last year.

​

Tiafoe / Haase - The talented teenage American is at a career-high ranking (#63), but has only 2 ATP wins in 2017, just 4 for his career. Robin Haase, at #38 now, is having his best year since 2013. Tiafoe did take the first set off Gasquet at the Eastbourne Wimby tuneup before losing 6-3 in the 3rd.

​

Anderson / Verdasco - A matchup of accomplished veterans here...both just made the R16 at the French...KA took the 1st two sets off Djoker here in the R16 in 2015, while Verdasco's best Wimby was a QF appearance in 2013, where he too was up 2 sets to none, this time over eventual champion Murray.

​

Medvedev / Wawrinka - Tall (6'6"), rising young star Danil Medvedev made QFs of Queen's Club & SFs of Eastbourne, while Wawrinka just added Paul Annacone to his team in hopes of better grass results. He lost 1st round at Queen's Club to eventual champion Feliciano Lopez.

​

Isner / Fritz - Taylor is back on the tour after a couple months off due to injury, and lost only 1 set in qualifying here. Isner's best result here is 3rd Rd, accomplished in 2014 (l. to F. Lopez), 2015 (l. to Cilic), and 2016 (l. to Tsonga).

​

M. Zverev / Tomic - A year ago, Mischa lost in 1st Rd of qualies here...this year, he's the #27 seed, having just made the SFs of the Stuttgart tuneup. Tomic, an 18 yr old quarterfinalist here in 2011, is back to his best surface, where he made the 4th Rd a year ago. But at 7-13 on the year and #60 in the rankings, he is far from playing his best tennis these days.

​

Federer / Dolgopolov - In all likelihood, yes, this is a romp for Fed, but the mercurial, flashy, unorthodox Ukrainian, a former Top 15 talent who's now fallen to #84, could bother the Swiss Maestro with his unpredictable shot selection and myriad slices & spins.

​

Gasquet / Ferrer - Two 30+ vets who've both made multiple slam SFs in their careers, including two here for Gasquet (2007, '15). Both have slipped off their peaks, but the older Ferrer (35 now) much farther. The Spaniard is just 8-12 on the year, ranked #39, and unseeded at a slam for the first time since the 2005 Aussie Open!! Gasquet is the 22nd seed here, but ranked #27.

​

Del Potro / Kokkinakis - Two often injured guys, two big power players, and two different generations battling here. Kokkinakis was 13 when Delpo won the US Open in 2009...then less than 6 yrs later, he was inside the Top 70 as a 19 yr old. Two years and seemingly two dozen injuries later, he's back to restart his career. He played only one match in all of 2016 - a 1st round loss in the Olympics, and then finally got back to the tour shortly before the French Open. He played two Wimby tuneups, going 2-2 including a win over Raonic at Queen's Club. They both played the Boodles grasscourt event as well this past week, though it is sort of an exhibition event and not sanctioned by the ATP.

​

        One more note on first rounders, I counted 21 match-ups where either guy would have to be thrilled to make the 2nd round. This includes longtime journeymen, youngsters on the rise, and old-timers still hanging around. These are match-ups where no matter who wins, they gotta be like 'sweet, 2nd round...playing with the house's money here!'. So 1/3 of the guys in round 2 (21 of 64) will just be happy to be there. 

​

POTENTIAL 3RD ROUND TREATS

 

Kyrgios / Pouille - The volatile, temperamental, but incredibly talented Aussie vs. the fiery, flashy, go-for-broke Frenchman. Both have made the QFs here - Kyrgios in 2014, Pouille last year. 

​

Nadal / Khachanov - 21 yr old Khachanov and his massively powerful forehand could become the latest obstacle to Wimbledon success for Rafa. He already had no problem upsetting Berdych at the French last month.

​

Sock / A Zverev - Sock, like AZ, lost immediately at the French, but then, unlike AZ, didn't play a single Wimby tuneup. Since his strong U.S. Masters showings (SF @ I.W., QF @ Miami), the American is just 4-5. Both can wallop serves and forehands about as hard as anyone.

​

Djokovic / Del Potro - Assuming Delpo gets there, and heck - Djoker too - this should be tasty treat of a match. They played an epic 5-setter here in the semifinals 4 years ago, and this is already their 4th meeting in 2017 (all won by the Serb). The best was the first - in Acapulco where they battled for over 2 & a half hours before Djoker pulled it out 4-6, 6-4, 6-4. Novak holds the career edge 14-4. 

​

2016 ATP Recap

​

2016 was an exciting, turbulent year for men’s tennis, as there were developments at all levels that shook up the status quo. Let’s take a look back at the recently completed, pivotal year.

​

December 1, 2016

The Big 4 – The outlook changed significantly for all four members in 2016, as Father Time further established his presence (Fed & Rafa), while the mental taxation that comes with utter domination overcame a still prime Djoker. And of course, the burning desire to be #1 drove Andy Murray to a magical year that ended with a slam, a gold, a 24-match win streak, 3 Masters titles, and a #1 ranking.

FEDERER: The most affected by Father Time, but he did make the SFs of Wimby in his last event of the year. Now ranked 16th, his lowest since May 2001, he snapped a streak of 14 straight years being ranked inside the Top 10! There’s a good chance he’ll never make a slam SF or Masters final again, as he’s now 35 yrs old. NADAL: 2016 basically confirmed what we pretty much knew from 2015 – Rafa will never be ‘Rafa’ again. He failed to make a single slam QF, and again missed time due to injury. His 39 match wins was his lowest total since 30 in 2004. Endless years of full bore effort on every point have taken their toll on the now 30 yr old. DJOKER: A tale of two seasons… thru the French Open (44-3 record, 2 slams, 3 Masters, 6 titles total, 1st guy since Laver ’69 to hold all 4 slams) …and post French (21-6 record, 1 slam R-UP, 3rd Rd Wimby exit, 1 title – Toronto, and a #2 ranking for the first time since mid-2014). It seems to be largely between the ears for Djoker, family issues and mental fatigue overcoming his excellency on the court this past year, though arm issues also cropped up during the summer. Will his fire burn bright enough in 2017 and beyond to battle to reclaim #1? A boatload of early year points to defend from 2016 makes the journey tough from the start. ^^^Interesting note on Djoker’s career^^^ – He’s had 2 of the most dominant runs in the history of the sport that are responsible for a huge chunk of his Hall of Fame resume – Aussie 2011 thru US Open 2011, and then Beijing 2014 thru French 2016. Those 28 months represent just 20.3% of his career time wise (using French ’05 as a starting point), but account for 30 of his 66 ATP titles (45.5%), 15 of his 30 Masters titles (50%), and 8 of his 12 slam titles (66.7%), while winning 94.5% of his matches during those periods (207-12), compared to 79.2% during the rest of his career (544-143). MURRAY: His too was a tale of two seasons….thru the French Open (28-6, 1 title, 3 R-UPs – all losses to Djoker in final) …and post French (50-3 with 8 titles, including Wimby, Olympics, 2 Masters events, and the London ATP Championships). For the first time ever, the finals of the year end championships came down to the winner taking the #1 ranking for the year, and Murray beat his longtime rival Djokovic rather soundly, 6-3, 6-4, to finish #1. Right now is the first time since Feb 2007 (Mur #13, Djok #14) that Murray has been ranked higher than his lifelong nemesis. They’re both 29.5 with maybe 2-3 more years of dominant tennis in them…it’ll be interesting to see how they slug it out from here. Can they both keep younger foes (and ‘old guys’ like Wawrinka, 31) at bay while still owning slam and Masters titles? I suspect more encroachment from Raonic, Waw, K-Nish, Delpo, Cilic, & other Top 20 guys this coming year.

​

American Men – In 2007, only one American finished inside the Top 10 – the first time since 1986 that the USA failed to place multiple guys inside the Top 10 at year end. In 2012, zero Americans finished inside the Top 10 for the first time ever. Now in 2016, no American has finished in the Top 10 for the 5th straight year!! When does this end? Who ends it? JOHN ISNER: He’s been the highest ranked American at year end for 5 straight years, but he slipped from #11 to #19 during 2016, is now 31, and is unlikely to regain a foothold inside the Top 10. JACK SOCK: Sock is 24 yrs old, stayed inside the Top 30 all year, and won a personal best 37 matches in 2016. But unless he adds some variety to his Big Serve, Big FH game, and some more consistency as well, he won’t crack the Top 10…but near term, he has the best chance. SAM QUERREY/STEVE JOHNSON: Both are solid players, both inside the Top 35 (Sam #31, Steve #33) and both under 30 (29 and 26 respectively), but I’d be surprised if either broke inside the top 20, let alone Top 10. Querrey’s career has been marked by inconsistency and wide ranking fluctuations, while his career-best rank of 17 was almost 6 years ago. Unless Johnson learns how to come over a BH and not slice it 95% of the time, his ranking seems to be maxed out at about 20-25. He moves well, and has a strong serve and FH, but there’s just too much strong, young, well-rounded talent out there to reach the Top 10 with such a glaring liability. TAYLOR FRITZ: As an 18 yr old, Fritz splashed onto the scene early last year when he first won a Challenger event in Australia, then qualified into the Aussie Open, a few weeks later made the finals of Memphis (l. to Nishikori), and then qualified and made the QFs of Acapulco (l. to Querrey). The highlights were rather few and far between after that - qualifying and winning a round at Miami, and then doing the same at Shanghai. But he showed he could hang with the big boys, keep cool under pressure, and has some tools to climb high in the ranks. Now 19, he finished the year ranked 76th, and as he gets stronger and quicker, he should be seeded at slams (ranked #32 or higher) by 2019, assuming continued development of his game. FRANCES TIAFOE: Tiafoe is a few months younger than Fritz, turning 19 in January next year, and boosted his ranking during 2016 from 176 to 108. His highlights along the way included making 5 Challenger finals (winning two of them), beating Fritz in a 1st round Indian Wells center court encounter, and then going up 2 sets to none on Isner in an epic 1st rounder at the US Open, before losing 7-6(3) in the 5th set. Tiafoe’s athleticism approaches that of Gael Monfils – he’s an absurdly fast, quick guy, extremely agile, and has tremendous racquet head speed. His strokes are a bit unorthodox, but he has such raw talent, I’d take his upside over every other American I’ve mentioned above. His quickness and speed is already ATP elite. As he gets more consistent and tacks on more ATP match experience, he should become the #1 American, and a Top 10 talent, for many years.

​

The Youth Brigade (Next Gen) – New blood into any sport is always exciting – just look at Zeke and Dak in the NFL and the Greek Freak in the NBA (21 yrs old - if you haven’t seen him, check YouTube highlights. Absurd talent.). When tennis players are young and the learning curve is steep, you want to see large jumps in their rankings, and that’s what we got from a number of promising talents this year. Let’s go over them by ranking:

​

Rank – [age] Player (Jan 1, 2016 rank)

#8 – [23] Dominic Thiem (#20) --- A French Open SF appearance alongside 4 titles and 2 R-ups, boosted Thiem’s rank all the way to qualifying for the London Championships. Merely maintaining his rank in 2017 will likely be challenging, considering the company he keeps at #8 – Cilic (6) and Monfils (7) right above him…Nadal (9) and Berdych (10) right below. His 4 titles came on 3 different surfaces – his athletic game and beautiful 1-hand BH translates everywhere.

#13 – [21] Nick Kyrgios (#30) --- Won his first 3 career titles in 2016 – all hardcourt – but then tanked a match so badly in Shanghai that he was suspended for the year. If he doesn’t find a stronger love of the game, there’s a good chance we’ll never see a mature enough approach to his profession from Kyrgios to maximize his absurd talents. Most experts agree he’s a potential slam winner, but they also agree they wouldn’t wager too much on it. At this point, he’s the epitome of ‘talented head case’.

#15 – [22] Lucas Pouille (#78) --- Pouille galloped up the rankings, from fringe ATP qualifying / challenger level status to Top 15 in the world. He served notice immediately, beating Goffin at an Aussie tuneup in his first tourney of the year. He’s a gutsy, athletic shot-maker who goes big at big moments, playing with strong fire and intensity. His 4th Rd US Open win over Nadal, 7-6(6) in the 5th, displayed all his best attributes on a grand stage, and he also made the QFs of Wimbledon in addition to garnering his first ATP title at Metz.

#24 – [19] Alexander Zverev (#83) --- Zverev rocketed up the ranks almost as much as Pouille, but at 3 yrs younger! The 19-yr old has been tabbed as another potential slam winner, due to his serve, groundstrokes (great BH), and surprising agility and speed for a still skinny 6’6” kid. He made 3 finals in 2016, winning one (St. Petersburg) by taking down Berdych & Wawrinka in the SFs and Final. He also beat Federer in the Halle SFs. He won 44 matches in 2016, tied with Monfils for 10th on tour. He has a very decent chance to finish Top 10 next year.

​

-----DIVIDING LINE – BELOW THIS LINE, TALENT NOT NEARLY AS OBVIOUS------

​

#45 – [21] Kyle Edmund (#102) --- Edmund’s before beating Gasquet and Isner on the way to the 4th Rd (l. to Djokovic). He did reach a couple ATP QFs prior to that, as well as winning 2 Challenger events in the first half of the year. Big and athletic, he could be seeded at the 2017 US Open.

#48 – [20] Borna Coric (#44) --- Our first Youth Brigader to see his rank fall in 2016…Coric plateaued and was also injured a bit in the ladder half of the season. His upside remains below Thiem/Zverev/Kyrgios, but Top 30 and Top 20 is still quite possible/probable for this very fast, hard-working young talent. Was at #33 in Summer ’15.

#53 – [20] Karen Khachanov (#152) --- This tall (6’6”) Russian was playing all qualies and Challengers to start the year, before breaking through at Barcelona when he qualied and made the 3rd Rd, beating Agut before losing to Dolgopolov. It was then more qualies and Challengers until the US Open, when he qualied and won a round before bowing out to Nishikori in a tough 4-set 2nd rounder. Still brimming with post-US Open confidence, he then beat Sousa (#34), Mannarino (#66), F Lopez (#27), Troicki (#32), and finally Ramos-Vinolas (#31) on his way to a shocking title at the Chengdu, China event, taking his rank from 101 to 56 in the process, and changing his ATP life. Hopefully he can keep up the stronger results in 2017…I saw a lot of his 2nd rounder vs. K-Nish at the US Open, he looks legit.

#55 – [23] Jiri Vesely (#41) --- An older name, still radically inconsistent, but flashed more sparks in 2016 with a win over Djoker at Monte Carlo and a 4th Rd Wimbledon effort. A big strong guy with nice touch, hopefully he gains some consistency in 2017…but after closing 2016 with a retirement in a Challenger match, who knows?

#75 – [22] Adam Pavlasek (#160) --- Resume was almost exclusively minor league in 2016, going just 3-3 at the ATP level. 6’1” Czech did jump nicely in the rankings though…we’ll see if he can consistently win ATP matches in 2017.

#76 – [19] Taylor Fritz (#174) --- Read above…(American Men)

#79 – [22] Jordan Thompson (#154) --- Only went 3-10 at the ATP level in 2016, but did win 4 Challenger events, including 2 back-to-back in October. Much like Pavlasek, still has to prove he’s a legit ATP player.

#82 – [22] Thiago Monteiro (#463) --- The massive jump in ranking is a bit deceptive since he was actually well inside the Top 300 back in 2014 before mysteriously slipping in 2015. The clay-courter from Brazil did make the QFs of Gstaad, beating Gilles Simon along the way, while going 6-7 overall in his 2016 ATP matches.

#99 – [20] Daniil Medvedev (#329) --- Tall (6’6”) and skinny (176 lbs) but seems to be talented. Jumped a massive 230 spots in the rankings…did most of his work at the Challenger level in 2016, but did post a 5-5 ATP record that included a QFs appearance at Moscow where he beat Kukushkin and Troicki. Definitely a talent to watch in 2017.

#100 – [21] Yoshihito Nishioka (#117) --- The tiny (5’7”) speedster from Japan mostly plateaued in 2016, but did win 2 Challengers and went 10-12 at the ATP level, including a 3rd Rd loss at Miami, SF loss at Atlanta, and QF loss at Memphis – he seems to like the states!! Look for a 30-40 spot rise in the rankings from him during 2017.

#104 – [20] Hyeon Chung (#51) --- A major backslide in 2016 after poor results thru the French and then injury thru early September. But boasting decent size (6’1”), good movement, and nice ball-striking capabilities, Chung went 2-1 in Challenger finals during the Fall, and seems poised to rise back inside the Top 70 at least in 2017.

#105 – [20] Jared Donaldson (#134) --- JD won 7 ATP matches (10 losses) in 2016, and also had 3 Challenger SF losses, and one Challenger R-up. He heated up on the hardcourts in summer, qualifying and then winning 2 Rds at the Toronto Masters and then doing the same at the US Open, beating Goffin and Troicki before Karlovic ended the magical run. Could eventually develop a healthy rivalry with fellow Americans Fritz & Tiafoe.

#108 – [18] Frances Tiafoe (#176) --- Read above…(American Men)

#116 – [18] Stefan Kozlov (#351) --- A massive rankings jump for the young American as he started the year playing Futures events. He made 3 Challenger finals, winning his final one, his last event of 2016, in Columbus Ohio. He surprised everyone with wins on the grass over Nishioka and Stevie Johnson at s’Hertogenbosch in June, 2 of his 3 ATP match wins on the year. Top 80 in 2017???

​

Other Young Names to Watch Out For – #141 Ernesto Escobedo (20 yrs old)…#143 Duckhee Lee (18)…#153 Quentin Halys (20)…#156 Andrey Rublev (19)…#160 Elias Ymer (20)…#198 Michael Mmoh (18)…#201 Noah Rubin (20)…#204 Reilly Opelka (19 – 6’10”)…#205 Alexander Bublik (19 – beat Agut at Moscow)…#209 Stefanos Tsitsipas (18 – made back-to-back Challenger finals this Fall)…#285 Tommy Paul (19)…#304 Mackenzie McDonald (21 – NCAA Champ from UCLA – quick & athletic small guy)…#492 Mikael Ymer (18 – beat Verdasco at Stockholm 6-2, 6-1)….and finally, #601 Felix Agur-Aliassime (Just 16 yrs old, won US Open Jrs – watched the match….has ATP first serve heat already, a real weapon…good athlete, very fluid…nice size…all the raw tools to be great). NOTE: Thanasi Kokkinakis,still just 20, basically missed all of 2016 with injury, but is expected back at the start of 2017. He currently has no ranking, but reached #69 in the rankings in the middle of 2015, and is very much a youthful factor if healthy.

​

Other Random Musings on 2016 – #38 Juan Martin Del Potro finally came back on tour, and with quite a dramatic splash. In chronological order – 1) Olympic silver after beating Djoker in Round 1. 2) Making US Open QFs. 3) Winning Stockholm – his first ATP title since 2014 Sydney. 4) Coming back from 2 sets down to Cilic in Davis Cup finals Rubber #4, before storming back to win and help lead Argentina to its first Davis Cup title….#4 Stan Wawrinka’s 3 tourneys before winning US Open – 2nd Rd Wimby, SFs Toronto, 3rd Rd Cincy; then 3 events afterwards – R-up St Petersburg, 3rd Rd Shanghai, QFs Basel --- he is so hot n cold, but can be EN FUEGO when on….#62 Alexandr Dolgopolov continued to disappoint, the mercurial magician losing his last 6 matches of 2016 before stopping after the US Open….Speaking of talented underachievers, #151 Ernests Gulbis virtually fell off the tennis map after a surprise 4th Rd appearance at the French. He lost immediately in his next 3 tourneys, culminating with a loss to #118 Rajeev Ram at Toronto, before halting play for the year….#11 David Goffin had his best year yet, and ditto for #3 Milos Raonic, who held match points on Murray in the SFs of the London ATP Championships (longest ‘best of 3’ match of the year - 3:38 - and possibly the best match of the year, at any length!)….#21 David Ferrer fell out of the Top 10 for the first time since 2010, and at 34 yrs old, it’s doubtful he’ll ever return….Can #12 Tsonga and #10 Berdych, both 31, continue to hang around the Top 10 in 2017?....Nice to see #17 Grigor Dimitrov turn his season around after dropping to #40 in July. He made the 4th Rd at US Open, then beat Pouille, Nadal, and Raonic on his way to the Beijing final before losing to Murray….Hats off to #20 Ivo Karlovic for finishing inside the top 20 at age 37. Two more titles in 2016 give him 8 for his career….The diminutive German #33 Philip Kohlschreiber has remained largely inside the Top 40 since 2007, maximizing his talent to take 7 titles and make 9 slam 4th rounds (with 1 slam QF), including a funky, weirdly coincidental 3-year streak of beating Isner in the US Open 3rd round. But this year he failed to win a single slam match, and I’d be surprised to see the 33 yr old in the Top 40 next year at this time….Finally, #362 Tommy Robredo surprised a lot of people when he faded from the scene with injuries after 2011, at age 29, only to resurface strongly in 2013, his comeback peaking at #14 in mid-2014. But he faded again this year, injuries forcing him off the tour for 7 months, and though he’s back and played Challengers to close 2016, at 34 yrs old now, we’ve likely seen the last of Robredo’s relevance on the ATP Tour – one of the best clay-courters ever to never make the French SFs.

 

2016 Wimbledon Preview

 

Dominant #1, Clear #2...Wide Open After That

 

June 25, 2016

 

       Very little time to do a 'proper' Wimby Preview this week, so I will give you all the progression of picks in my Wimbledon Draft - 6 people, 9 rounds. We handicapped Djoker and Murray heavily (Djoker more), but no one else. Below are the picks in order, with a brief comment by each. My picks are noted with an asterik*...all picks were made before the draw came out. Seed in parenthesis.

 

1) Murray(2)  - This guy loves Andy, and is not a fan of Novak.

2) Djoker(1) - Soon to be 4-time champ here, right?

3) Federer(3) - Optimistic pick, hoping that Fed can come thru big one more time.

4) Thiem(8) - Wow, the kid has stepped up his game monstrously this year.

5) *Raonic(6) - J Mac in his corner now...2014 semifinalist here...gets Djok in QFs.

6) Goffin(11) - Speedy, steady Belgian made 4th Rd here in 2015.

7) Kyrgios(15) - Underachieving in 2016, but immense talent, of course.

8) *Gasquet(7) - 2-time semifinalist here (2007, '15). Solid 2016 so far.

9) Cilic(9) - Was up 2 sets to 1 on Djoker here in 2014...won 4 gms rest of match.

10) Berdych(10) - 2010 finalist here is slipping this year...turns 31 in Sept.

11) Wawrinka(4) - Not totally comfortable on grass, but dangerous w/ huge power.

12) A Zverev(24) - 19 yr old beat Fed in Halle, has all the tools to be #1 one day.

13) Tomic(19) - Bernie loves the grass, but consistency and maturity still elude him.

14) Isner(18) - Now 6 yrs removed from legendary 70-68 Mahut match here.

15) Tsonga(12) - How healthy is his abductor? SFs in 2011, '12...now 31 yrs old.

16) K-Nish(5) - Consistent health still eludes him...4th Rd (2014) is best result here.

17) *Agut(14) - Steady, quiet Spaniard seems to always beat who he's supposed to.

18) F Mayer - Back from injury, wins Halle, but then draws Thiem 1st Rd.

19) Sock(27) - Young American w/ very so-so 2016 (15-10). Just 1-2 lifetime here.

20) *Karlovic(23) - At 37, still formidable with that serve. 4th Rd last yr (Murray).

21) Kohlschreiber(21) - Consummate pro, now 32...snuck into QFs here in 2012.

22) Dimitrov - What's happened?!? Now #37 in rankings, made SFs in 2014.

23) K Anderson(20) - Up 2 sets to 0 on Djoker last yr...back from early season injury.

24) Edmund - Bold pick of the young Brit, who's jumped from #102 to #68 this yr.

25) Pouille(32) - Another rising youngster (22)....0-1 lifetime here.

26) Simon(16) - Steady, boring Frenchman made QFs here last yr...but now 31.

27) Bedene - Slovak turned Brit is 1-3 lifetime here. Now #55 in world.

28) Mahut - 34 yr old lives for the lawn...won s'Hertogenbosch 2 weeks ago.

29) *Troicki(25) - Solid Serb has spent most of last 6-7 yrs in Top 30.

30) F Lopez(22) - Fading a bit at 34...just 14-15 this yr, no finals. But likes grass.

31) Coric - Hotshot 19 yr old has plateaued this yr (#49 now)...gets Karlo in Rd 1.

32) *Monfils(17) - Hasn't played since Rome (injury)...has never made 4th Rd here.

33) Stevie J - Mediocre/poor 2016 but just won Nottingham 2 days before Wimby starts.

34) Querrey(28) - Made SFs of s'Hertogenbosch tuneup...4th Rd here in 2010. 

35) Del Potro - Not what he once was...but had epic semi here vs. Djoker in 2013.

36) Ferrer(13) - Definitely slipping in 2016 at age 34...and not a huge fan of grass.
37) Paire(26) - Just 16-18 on yr, 5-5 lifetime here...lost only tuneup match to Bedene.

38) Chardy - Barely missed being seeded (#34)...so-so 2016 (14-14) so far.

39) Rosol - What's his career highlight...winning Bucharest & Winston-Salem, or beating Nadal here in 2012 2nd Rd?

40) Muller - Finalist at s'Hertogenbosch is playing his best tennis these days at age 34.

41) *Dolgopolov(30) - Mercurial & unique, but an underachieving career so far.

42) Yen-Hsun Lu - Bizarre selection - he's 0-1 at tour level this year. But did make QFs here in 2010, beating Roddick 4th Rd.

43) Pospisil - Has had a horrific 2016 (5-16), but made QFs here last year.

44) *Baghdatis - Went 4-3 in Wimby tuneups this yr, made SFs here in 2006.

45) Mannarino - Unspectacular Frenchman is 16-14 this yr...6-5 lifetime at Wimby.

46) Verdasco - Veteran Spaniard (32 now) has fallen to #52, but made QFs here in 2013.

47) Cuevas(29) - A dirtballer, but he battles hard and made finals of Nottingham this week (def Baghdatis, Muller along way).

48) Vesely - 6'6" 22 yr old has failed to live up to the hype so far. 11-14 in 2016.

49) Klizan - Tricky lefty has notched a few big wins in his career, but only 8-7 this yr.

50) Granollers - 30 yr old Spaniard is #43 now, but only 4-9 career at Wimby.

51) Seppi - Italian vet has slipped a bit at 32 now, ranked #57, but made SFs of Nottingham.

52) Youzhny - Russian vet has battled on Challenger tour & qualies to get rank back up to #73 from #153 in Nov, 2015. Has made 4th Rd here 8 times, including QFs in 2012. 30-15 career record at Wimby.

53) *A Kuznetsov - Career yr from 25 yr-old Russian - has 19 wins in 2016 so far, 19 total wins in 2014 & 2015 combined.

54) Gulbis - The ultimate underacheiver...has fallen to #61...best Wimby result: 3rd Rd in 2013.

​

 

​

   

​

 

 

 

 

 

​